7A, 7C, 7F
- study science test, this Friday, January 31 (from Ozone layer to the beginning of heat unit)
Knowledge is POWER. Use it
7C
- share the SARS and coronavirus facts (Kwok's lesson( with parents. Teach them to be smart
- read this investment story that was written by Kwok in 2003
June 15, 2003 Forrest Gump 2: Paranoids are like Ostriches . . .
Strange enough, the Toronto China Town has more non-Chinese customers than Asians in the last few weeks. The few oriental who shop and eat in China Town may cover their mouths and faces with anything from the sleeve of a sweater to a piece of Kleenex. Is SARS really spreading uncontrollably in Toronto? Should we be scare and hid our heads in sandboxes? The only problem is I can’t stick my big head and laptop inside a sandbox and work on this article at the same time!!!! So I am standing tall and looking around.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is a respiratory disease cause by the coronavirus. This bug is similar to the virus that causes the common cold BUT it is originated from livestock (civet cats) before mutating itself to human victims. Scientists believe the mutation of the RNA inside the coronavirus make diagnosis and treatments extremely difficult since every virus differ slightly from the other. Until now, there are no treatments or reliable diagnosis that can be used. Often, medical professionals depend on signs and symptoms such as fever, dry cough and shortness of breath to judge the early stage of the infection. More reliable tests, such as the low Lymphocytes count (a type of white blood cell) and inflamed lungs (from chest X-ray) should be done to make more accurate diagnosis. Since almost all SARS patients develop fever of greater than 38.5°C (100.4°F), some airports are now checking body temperature of all the outbound passengers to restrict the export of SARS.
My grade 8 science students would know that antibiotic such as Zithromax, Amoxicillin and Levofloxacin are ineffective against viruses. This is because viruses hide inside human cells and most antibiotics are programmed to destroy the cell wall of bacteria. Since antibiotic cannot penetrate through human cell membrane, these medications therefore cannot tackle the viruses that live inside human cells. Hence, antibiotics are not effective against SARS and other viral infections. The current treatments use a combination of a Hepatitis “C” anti-viral agent Ribavirin, and steroids, which appear to work in some patients in Hong Kong. The Ribavirin slows the duplication of virus inside human cells and steroids freeze the over-active immune systems so it won’t attack the healthy lung tissues. This method, however, contradicts the findings from some US researchers, which indicate the steroids/Ribavirin combination has no effect on the virus in laboratories.
So, how can investors benefit from the outbreak? Big pharmaceutical companies are not earning additional profit because of the epidemic since there are no tests or drugs are proven to be effective against this disease. Retail giant Wal-Mart hasn’t seen an increase in sales for masks, gloves and gowns. One of the possible ways is to buy shares in mask manufacturers such as 3M (MMM, $122, NYSE). Since early March 2003, the 3M factories in the US that manufacture the N-95 facial masks are operating 24/7 to pump out as many masks as possible since demand is huge, especially in Asian countries. It is important to note that the sales of facial masks and rubber gloves are only a small part of 3M’s operations and it will generate minute income relative to its annual $16 billion revenue. In addition, the demand for masks will diminish when SARS fear dwindles.
Most facial masks, including the N95 that block off 95% of the airborne droplets, last for about 4 hours depending on where they are used. Since the coronavirus live inside the droplets of fluids (saliva, mucus, human waste) and they will be terminated when airborne, the mask can then separate the virus from our respiratory systems. After that, these masks will have to be disposed with other medical waste by specialized techniques. In China and Hong Kong, some immoral businessmen actually re-iron these masks and resell them in the open market for a quick buck. But in most western nations, the medical waste industry is highly regulated and used syringe, masks, human parts as well as body fluids cannot be incinerated, buried or recycled!!! There are very few specialized companies that are capable of disposing this kind of waste. In some cases, these companies may monopolize the whole industry in the entire region and charge a premium for what they do.
Stericycle (SRCL, $41, NASDAQ) is one of the larger players in the medical waste industry. Its presence in the continental United States, Canada and Puerto Rico will generate about $460 million in revenues, with approximately $60 million in profit in 2003. Recently it has been acquiring smaller companies in the same industry including Scherer Healthcare (for $26 million) and Micro-Med Industries (for $11.5 million). Its national dominance and continued expansion will improve the transportation network and further utilize the existing infrastructure. It is important, however, to note that SRCL is carrying some high interest debt (about $225 million with $73 million in cash) but analysts from ValueLine believe that the strong cash flow from its day-to-day operations will more than offset its debt burden. Currently, Mr. Kwok has no holdings in this company but I am seriously looking into buying a few shares in the near future.
Toronto is safe. SARS is NOT an airborne disease and it is contained in the Great White North. Our medical professionals and scientists are doing everything we can to develop effective treatments for the patients. Only the paranoids are ignoring the facts and hide their heads in sand boxes to shun away from everything! The world media have been focusing on the negative aspects of the outbreak in order to scare people and many don’t report the improvements of the situations in Toronto because disasters get attentions and they sell. It doesn’t look like ostriches are the only animals that bury their heads in sand pits to avoid reality. I am dinning in Chinese restaurants, going to movies, shopping in our malls and attending baseball games. Are you? Party on!
No comments:
Post a Comment